Weekly Technical Outlook for Week 27 – 30th April 2015.

Posted By : Kishore B.S

>NIFTY closed 3.5% lower on the week on a bearish note due to broad based selling on subdued results across the markets
>The week was occupied with negative sentiments across the markets on MAT (Minimum Alternative Taxes) issues which will impact flows from US & UK, subdued quarterly results and expected below par monsoons in North-west & east of India
>Technical NIFTY is near the crucial juncture making a double bottom 8269 and a multi week support 8300. Trend on medium term seems to be on the negative bias and any rises should be sold until 8521 – 8554 crossed decisively
>Expiry week ahead NIFTY is expected to move swiftly and be volatile act based on the support and resistance levels provided

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Daily Chart


Daily Chart
 NIFTY after a 5 – wave decline from 8854 to 8285 gave a short covering technical bounce up to 8505 confirming a series of lower top formation
 NIFTY is at the crucial juncture 8269 multiple support zone just sustained to close above 8300 levels
 NIFTY witnessing a zigzag 5-3-5 correction from 8854 – 8285 after making 8505 as intermediate lower top expected to decline again in a 5 – wave fashion
 The crucial resistance zones on higher side would be around 8375/ 8420/ 8453
 Thus any rises on the NIFTY can be sold in to as the sentiment remains weak with stop loss 8545 for targets of 8154/ 8067/ 8000/ 7933 (probable target which also syncs with principal of equality A – C) and worst case scenario could be around 7780 – 7815
The key support & Resistance zone for NIFTY :
S – 8269/8152/ 8067/ 8000/ 7933/ 7819 – 7780
R – 8375/ 8420/ 8453/ 8505/ 8550 (trend change)
Trade Setup 1:
Sell on rises around 8375- 8420 with stop loss of 8554 for targets 8152/ 8067/7988/7933
Trade Setup 2:
Conservative traders can sell short below 8230 with Stop loss 8375 for targets of 8067/ 7988/ 7933
Bank NIFTY is at the crucial levels although bearish able to sustain 18000 levels for the last week barely.
Banking Heavy weights ICICI Bank, HDFC Ltd and SBIN charts suggest further bearishness ahead. Still it is advisable to be stock specific on Bank NIFTY as there are choppy trades anticipated for the expiry week and truncated 4 day week (Friday 1st May Holiday).
The Key Support and Resistance zone for BANK NIFTY:
S – 18000/ 17900/ 17733 (trend decider)
R – 18112/ 18385/ 18524 (trend Decider)
Mantra for the Week:
We recommend being more on stock specific rather than betting on specific sector. Midcaps will more vulnerable thus better avoided.
Range for the Week:
NIFTY can be in the range around 8152 – 8420 broadly for the week. Below 8230 further weakness can be seen up to 8152/8067/8000.

Calls for the Week:

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Team SMI
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(Inputs: Mr. Raju Angadi Vishwanath, Facutly – TA, Stock Market Institute, Bangalore India)

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